The most crucial factor for any sports betting success is the ability to find games where the bookmakers’ odds are not consistent with the actual probability of that particular game.
Chance assessment is simply the probability that you think there is a given odds “go home”. In order to identify the evaluation of the given game, you must multiply your chance assessment by the odds – for example 40 * 2.5 = 100. We have made a simple betvalue calculator that you can use.
Betvalue = Chance Assessment x Odds
Betvalue is also an expression of what your payback percentage would be if you could play the same game thousands of times. Put another way: A more than 100 betvalue means that on average you win money, a bet of exactly 100 means that you remain in the status quo on average and a bet of less than 100 means you will lose money on that game on average .
Even if your betvalue is 80 and thus far below 100, there may still be a high probability that you will win exactly that odds. Betvalue is a long-term expression. Just as you know that a coin over 1000 throws should be flat and crowned about 500 times each, betvalue also requires a lot of games before you as such can rely on it.
The great challenge of chance assessment and challenge
The challenge is first and foremost that half of the validation equation is controlled entirely subjectively by you. You put your chance assessment yourself.
If there is anything we know about people today, then we are very subjective and generally make many cognitive errors of thought. So if, for example, you put your chance assessment at 42% when the actual / real chance that FC Copenhagen wins is 38% then you will by mistake calculate an overweight challenge.
Your betvalue is only as accurate as your chance assessment.
In spite of these challenges, it is necessary that you, before each game, make a chance assessment to assess whether the game’s evaluation is lucrative. Therefore, a sports betters main task is actually to be able to make accurate chance assessments. In the event that sports betting can better assess the probability (read: the chance) for a given outcome then you can make money playing on sports.